PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) -- The 2020 presidential election marked the first time in years Baby Boomers and older generations didn't make up half of all votes cast in Rhode Island. But younger generations still didn't match their level of enthusiasm for going to the polls.
A Target 12 analysis of voter turnout data from the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections shows more than two-thirds of registered Rhode Island voters in the Baby Boomer and Silent generations showed up at the polls in both elections. Generation X was close behind at 65%, and Generation Z saw rapid growth in participation as its oldest members turned 18.
Yet Millennials showed anemic turnout growth compared to nearly every other generation with the exception of the Greatest Generation, which is shrinking as even its youngest members reach their 90s.
Every generation voted at a higher rate in 2020 compared with 2016 with the exception of the Greatest Generation, which posted a slight decline. Gen Z's turnout rate grew the most, increasing by 16 percentage points, followed by Gen X and Millennials (6 points), Boomers (4 points) and the Silent Generation (2 points).
But voter turnout rates only tell part of the story, since the size of each generation impacts the raw number of ballots cast by each cohort.
Baby Boomers continued to dominate the Rhode Island electorate in 2020, casting 36% of all ballots, though that was down from 38% in 2016.
The Silent Generation's share of the electorate dropped from 14% in 2016 to 10% in 2020, with its youngest members now in their mid-70s. Gen X, meanwhile, saw no change, holding steady at 25% of all ballots. And Millennials' share of the electorate inched up from 20% in 2016 to 22% in 2020.
Gen Z saw a roughly 5-percentage-point increase in its share of the overall vote -- reflecting the fact its oldest members would have been just 19 years old in 2016.
12 News politics analyst Joe Fleming said older voters have always been more reliable voters over recent decades, and politicians take that into account as they run their campaigns. It's one reason Social Security and Medicare are staples of political TV ads, he said.
"They look at the polling data, they look at the numbers, their consultants are saying, 'Look at senior citizens -- they vote heavily,'" Fleming said. "They're concerned about Social Security when they test this in polling."
Vice President Kamala Harris is heavily favored to win Rhode Island next week, leading President Donald Trump by double-digit margins in the polls. Neither campaign has spent any time or much money in Rhode Island, and a Republican hasn't won in the state since Ronald Reagan in 1984.
But how each generation turns out next Tuesday could affect the margin between the two candidates. About 75% of Rhode Islanders ages 18 to 34 supported Harris, compared to just 18% for Trump, according to the most recent survey by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.
The pair were more evenly matched among the other age groups tested. Just half of respondents 65 years and older said they supported Harris, compared to 47% for Trump.
The dynamic means that if fewer younger voters turnout in Rhode Island, Trump could improve his margin over 2020, when he earned 38.6% of the overall vote, nearly unchanged from his share four years earlier. The only Republican who had done as well as Trump in Rhode Island this century was George W. Bush in 2004, when he received 39%.
Polls suggest Harris could see a boost in her Rhode Island margin if younger voters decide to turn out in droves. And that support could become even more pronounced if young women show up, as a recent Gallup analysis shows younger American women have become far more liberal than their male counterparts since 2001.
Eli Sherman (esherman@wpri.com) is a Target 12 investigative reporter for 12 News. Connect with him on Twitter and on Facebook.
Ted Nesi contributed to this report.